🔗 Share this article

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.